Tag: Updates
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Hamas First Without a Mandate: Mapping the Shift in Palestinian Opinion
Using two years of PSR polling, this piece charts the shift from rally to re-pluralization—Hamas first without a mandate—and shows how a felt cease-fire and Palestinian-led reconstruction can widen support for negotiated politics.
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Jihadist Propaganda in November: Harder Creeds and Shifting Fronts
Jihadist media in November 2025 tightened doctrine against democracy, shifted the centre of gravity toward African battlefields, and stitched Sudan, Mali, Gaza, Yemen, and Afghanistan into a single narrative of siege—offering supporters a moral map that widens the target set and raises the stakes for policy missteps.
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Sudan in Transnational Jihadist Storytelling
As Sudan’s war deepens and al-Fāshir becomes shorthand for unchecked atrocity, AQAP and the Islamic State are working to recast the conflict as a “forgotten wound” and an “open arena” for jihad.
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ISIS Propaganda in October: Doctrinal Hardening and Distributed Violence
October’s propaganda shows ISIS privileging authority and obedience while shifting to small, repeatable operations amplified by ISKP’s hard line on allegiance.
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No Gray Zone in Khorasan
ISKP resurrects a hard binary—īmān vs. kufr—to delegitimize the Taliban, sort communities, and lower barriers to violence.
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Patience, Signs, and Small Wars
Al-Nabāʾ 518 frames patience as doctrine and repetition as strategy, stitching dispersed, low-cost operations into a campaign of attrition; the messaging prioritizes convoy interdiction, mobility targeting, and counter-governance harassment—signaling an intent to exhaust rather than achieve a single decisive clash.
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Peace as Betrayal, Endurance as Strategy
Al-Nabāʾ 517 pairs a veto on diplomacy with an Africa-led operations rhythm and Syrian attrition, reframing “peace infrastructure” as a target and complicating paths to expand Gulf normalization.
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Claims, Coercion, and the Performance of Governance in al-Nabāʾ 516
Doctrine organizes al-Nabāʾ 516: “faith through action” is used to stage authority by pairing generalized attacks on civilians and churches with choreographed daʿwa, normalizing coercive control across theaters.
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Enemy Taxonomies and Moving Frontiers: Trendlines from al-Nabāʾ 515
Al-Nabāʾ 515 casts preparation as participation, elevates Africa as the operational showcase, and leverages al-Hawl to sustain disciplined mobilization.
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Reclassifying the Battlefield: Inside ISKP’s Delegitimization Playbook
ISKP’s Pashto pamphlet weaponizes doctrine to recode Taliban militancy as jāhiliyyah and claim a monopoly on legitimate jihad through bayʿah to a caliph. This analysis unpacks that authority-first logic, its recruitment function, and the border-collapsing frame that treats Afghanistan and Pakistan as one “apostate system.”
ELGOHARI.COM 