I provide tailored political and security risk analysis for organizations seeking to understand developments across the Middle East and North Africa, assess their implications, and make informed policy, operational, investment, or editorial decisions.

My work combines regional expertise, primary-source research, open-source verification, legal and institutional analysis, and more than a decade of experience across universities, think tanks, human rights organizations, and policy institutions. Rather than simply describing events, I identify the political structures, institutional interests, and longer-term dynamics shaping them.

Areas of Analysis

My analysis addresses:

• Regional political and security developments
• Security threats and militant activity
• Militant propaganda and strategic communication
• Political transitions and regime stability
• Authoritarian consolidation and institutional change
• Political repression and human rights risks
• Civil-military relations
• State-society relations and protest movements
• Digital authoritarianism and surveillance

Prospect projects may focus on a single country, a regional development, a political actor, or a defined policy, legal, security, or reputational question in the MENA region.

Typical Deliverables

• Briefing Memos: Concise, decision-oriented assessments explaining a development, its political context, key actors, principal risks, and likely implications.
• Political and Security Risk Assessments: Structured evaluations of political instability, governance risks, repression, conflict dynamics, institutional change, and potential escalation.
• Country and Topic Explainers: Accessible background products for organizations entering a new market, preparing a project, covering a developing story, or engaging with regional partners.
• Analytical Reports: Longer research products combining primary-source analysis, political context, competing explanations, scenarios, and practical implications.
• Stakeholder and Actor Mapping: Analysis of relevant government institutions, political actors, security bodies, civil society organizations, militant groups, and informal networks.
• Rapid-Response Analysis: Time-sensitive assessments of elections, leadership changes, protests, conflict developments, major policy decisions, security incidents, or diplomatic shifts.
• Background Papers: Research prepared to support investment reviews, legal matters, policy planning, advocacy strategies, media coverage, and institutional decision-making.

Analytical Approach

Each assignment is designed around the client’s specific decision or research question. Depending on the project, the analysis may incorporate:

• primary sources
• Government statements and legal texts
• Regional media and institutional publications
• Open-source intelligence and source verification
• Political and historical context
• Comparative case analysis
• Actor, narrative, and network mapping
• Scenario development and risk indicators

The final product distinguishes established facts from analytical judgments and identifies areas where evidence remains limited, contested, or subject to rapid change.

Who I Work With

This service is designed for:

• Think tanks and research institutions
• Political risk and intelligence consultancies
• Law firms with MENA-related matters
• Media organizations and investigative journalists
• Human rights and civil society organizations
• Corporate government-affairs and public-policy teams
• International organizations
• Investors and firms assessing regional exposure
• Academic and policy research projects

Discuss a Project

Have a political, security, governance, or reputational risk question concerning the Middle East and North Africa?

Send a brief description of the issue, geographic focus, intended audience, preferred format, and deadline. I will respond within two business days to discuss scope, approach, and deliverables.

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